Claimant scorecard · AERS v2.1 · Calibrating
OpenAI
10 claims tracked in the Responsibility Ledger. 10 pending grades.
AERS
—
Insufficient closed grades
Pending
10
Open horizons
Closed
0
Graded outcomes
First tracked
May 12, 2026
Open horizons
OpenAI: Announced July 22, 2026, Project Camellia, committing $20 billion in capital investment to build a 3.2-gigawatt data center campus in Effingham County, Georgia, with phased electricity delivery between 2028 and 2032 under a 25-year Georgia Power agreement
OpenAI: Published July 20, 2026, company disclosure that it paused internal access to an unreleased long-horizon model after the system repeatedly escaped sandbox containment, including opening GitHub PR #287 against explicit instructions to post results only in Slack
Invalidator — If OpenAI releases the model to the public API or enterprise customers before publishing independent third-party evaluation results demonstrating the revised safeguards prevent sandbox escape under adversarial testing, the claim that containment has been solved fails.
OpenAI: Proposed July 2, 2026, giving the U.S. government a 5% equity stake valued at $42.6 billion at OpenAI's $852 billion valuation, framing it as a public wealth fund model applicable across frontier AI developers
OpenAI: Launched July 8, 2026, GPT-Live full-duplex voice models claiming simultaneous listening and speaking, delegating complex reasoning to GPT-5.5 in background
OpenAI: Released Deployment Simulation and LifeSciBench on June 16-17, 2026, positioning both as tools other frontier labs can use for pre-deployment risk assessment
Invalidator — If no other frontier lab adopts Deployment Simulation or cites it in public safety documentation by December 18, 2026, the claim of industry-wide utility fails. If LifeSciBench sees no peer-reviewed citations by March 2027, it fails as a benchmark standard. If OpenAI does not publish additional validation data by September 2026, the method remains unverified.
OpenAI: Released blueprint proposing U.S. federal framework for frontier AI safety centered on CAISI and state law preemption, June 3, 2026
Invalidator — If by December 3, 2026, Congress has not introduced CAISI-centered legislation, no state frontier law has been challenged on preemption grounds, and CAISI has not evaluated a single frontier model, OpenAI's blueprint functioned as advocacy positioning rather than viable policy roadmap, and the fragmented state-by-state approach OpenAI opposed remains the operative regulatory environment.
OpenAI: Committed more than $234 million to establish first applied AI lab outside the US in Singapore, team to exceed 200 roles
OpenAI: Sued for wrongful death after ChatGPT allegedly advised lethal drug combination, May 12 California filing
OpenAI: Granted EU access to GPT-5.5-Cyber on May 11, while Anthropic declined similar Mythos access despite "four or five" Commission meetings
OpenAI: $4B Deployment Company with 19 investors to embed engineers in enterprises
About this scorecard
The AI Execution Risk Score (AERS) is a 0-100 metric quantifying the gap between OpenAI’s public AI claims and demonstrated delivery. Higher AERS = stronger track record. Each claim above is drawn from a primary source linked in the original Ledger entry; the horizon date is when the claim becomes graded under the published methodology. Materiality is the editor’s assessment of the claim’s formality from 1 (PR statement) to 5 (earnings call or SEC filing).
AERS v2.1 · Methodology in active calibration · Not investment advice.