Claimant scorecard · AERS v2.1 · Calibrating
Microsoft
4 claims tracked in the Responsibility Ledger. 4 pending grades.
AERS
—
Insufficient closed grades
Pending
4
Open horizons
Closed
0
Graded outcomes
First tracked
Apr 30, 2026
Open horizons
Microsoft: Announced seven in-house MAI models June 2, 2026, and projected "another thousand-fold increase" in frontier-model training compute "over the next three years"
Invalidator — If by June 2, 2027, Microsoft has not published verifiable compute-scaling metrics showing progress toward the "thousand-fold increase" claim, or if the Mayo Clinic collaboration has not produced a deployed model within Mayo's hospital system, or if no enterprise customer has publicly validated the 10× efficiency claim, that would indicate the projections were aspirational rather than grounded in deployment reality.
Microsoft: Announced Aion 1.0 Plan will ship in-box with Windows in the coming months—a 14B-parameter reasoning model enabling local agentic workflows, June 3, 2026
Invalidator — If by December 3, 2026, Aion 1.0 Plan has not shipped in a generally available Windows release, or if Microsoft has not published open-source weights and model documentation confirming the 14B parameter count and agentic tool-calling capability, the claim is invalidated.
Microsoft: Announced Scout, an always-on AI agent with governed Entra identity and policy conformance controls, June 2, 2026
Invalidator — If by December 2, 2026, security researchers or enterprise IT teams publish documented cases of Scout acting outside configured policies, failing to produce audit trails for actions taken, or bypassing Entra identity controls, the grade drops to C or lower.
Microsoft: AI revenue run rate reaches $37 billion, up 123% year over year
Invalidator — Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings (due July 2026) or subsequent disclosures show annualized AI revenue materially below $35 billion, or investigative reporting from Bloomberg, The Information, or Wall Street Journal reveals that the $37 billion run rate included non-AI cloud revenue or was calculated using a methodology Microsoft later revised.
About this scorecard
The AI Execution Risk Score (AERS) is a 0-100 metric quantifying the gap between Microsoft’s public AI claims and demonstrated delivery. Higher AERS = stronger track record. Each claim above is drawn from a primary source linked in the original Ledger entry; the horizon date is when the claim becomes graded under the published methodology. Materiality is the editor’s assessment of the claim’s formality from 1 (PR statement) to 5 (earnings call or SEC filing).
AERS v2.1 · Methodology in active calibration · Not investment advice.